On my personal blog, I’m “hosting” a debate about global warming, following the submission by a PhD economist of a note to me discussing “global warming and libertarians”. It’s a bit off the usual topics of the Gang, so I will only post one article on these pages about it (unless the discussion takes off). Here is my main addition to the discussion (although I’ve written dozens of other pieces on the subject). If you find it interesting, please join the debate either here (by clicking on this note’s title, and then on the “Add new comment” link) or on my blog at Rossputin.com.
This is the fifth in a series of articles with "Stand-up Economist" Yoram Bauman taking the pro-global-warming-alarmism position and being debated by me and other more expert people such as the Cato Institute's Jerry Taylor and the Heartland Institute's James Taylor. The entire series should be able to be found by searching my blog for "Bauman", with this link.
Yoram Bauman makes a somewhat interesting though typically liberal pitch about climate change. Although I think Dr. Bauman makes a mistake framing the issue as something between libertarians and non-libertarians, his points are each worth refuting. So I shall.
First, I can’t remember ever seeing anybody, no matter his political persuasion say that climate change is not a “theoretical possibility”. Indeed, one would have to be insane to say that climate change would not happen. I’ll assume that your wording of your first of the “Three No’s” (“No Recognition”) was just poorly constructed since I can’t believe you think that I or anyone else denies that climate changes over time. The question is how much, if any, climate change is anthropogenic (caused by people).
The economic theory of externalities is sort of irrelevant here; we’re not disputing economics and we’re not disputing whether human activity puts things into the atmosphere which wouldn’t otherwise be there. It’s a very straight-forward question of whether our chances to the atmosphere (or anything else) are enough to cause global climate change.
My belief is that the answer is no. I don’t want to get into a long scientific debate here as I have described the science in detail in other postings on my blog, but here are a few of the basic points:
• Climate (temperature) measurements have been declining for 10 years now, and there has for years been a very suspicious gap between measured surface temperatures (going somewhat higher) and atmospheric temperatures (not going higher), leading to a possible conclusion of urban heat island effect and changes immediately around a measuring station such as roofs being painted.
• Data show that CO2 concentrations follow, don’t precede, temperature changes
• Our current warming cycle began before humans were putting substantial greenhouse gas concentrations into the atmosphere. (I should note that even the term “greenhouse gas” is tremendously misleading because even if these gases do cause warming they do not cause it in the same way that a greenhouse works.)
• The planet has been warmer than this before, including in the rather recent past, such as with Greenland being a beautiful vacation spot within the past century
• Even if one were to accept CO2 as being an important greenhouse gas, models show that it would not be a linear effect, and that each further increase in CO2 concentration would have a smaller climate effect than the prior (same-size or same-percentage) increase, and
• Antarctica has steadily been gaining ice mass for decades…and it holds over 90% of the world’s sea ice despite all the wailing about Greenland and Arctic ice.
So, Dr. Bauman’s “No Recognition” argument is a straw man. Opponents of global warming alarmism, whether libertarian or not, recognize that the climate changes. We simply dispute whether or to what degree humans are part of those changes. I do not believe the data is on the side of the alarmists.
To Dr. Bauman’s second point, “No peace with the IPCC”: I find this a rather strange point for someone who just came back from Israel and who, I presume, is at least a modest supporter of Israel. Arguing that the IPCC’s report is good science without substantial political bias in its creation (both of which are patently false) is like arguing that the UN is a fair arbiter on issues surrounding Israel. Does anybody believe the UN treats Israel with anything close to fairness? Does anybody believe the UN is not overall a profoundly anti-Semitic organization? Dr. Bauman, do you believe we should have “peace with the UN” when they call Israelis murderers and Hamas freedom-fighters? I mean, even if you weren’t pro-Israel, you’d have to think that worst case should be they’re all murderers or all freedom-fighters. You get my point. The idea that we should accept the IPCC report simply because it’s the product of a UN bureaucracy is not just muddle-headed, it’s downright ridiculous.
Collusion at the IPCC is not, as Dr. Bauman suggests, difficult. Enough former or current members of the IPCC have made it clear that only a very small number of people draft the reports and even fewer draft the summaries (which are primarily what politicians and bureaucrats read) for us to know that these documents intentionally exclude the views of “skeptics”. Ask Pat Michaels, Chris Landsea, Fred Singer, etc. You may not like their free-market political views, but they are pointing out corruption, not arguing about the best solution to an economic problem.
Again, Dr. Bauman, you mock the idea that “global warming stopped a decade ago”, but given that temperatures have indeed cooled over the last decade, it’s no sillier a statement than arguing that “global warming” started (insert number here) decades ago. And you make yourself look particularly unbelievable when you suggest that the fact of cooling temperatures over the past decade has been even somewhat widely reported. Indeed, it is “virtually never reported.” Why is it never reported? Not so much because of a left-wing conspiracy, though I do believe that media’s left-leaning biases also make them want to discount any evidence against the mania, but more because bad news sells and good news doesn’t.
Still, of the three of your “Three No’s”, this is the most ridiculous, arguing (especially as a Jew) that a product of the UN is almost certainly free of collusion, bad science, or leftist propaganda. Those are the coin in trade of the UN and the IPCC is no different.
Finally, to your third point, “No negotiation about climate change science”. That’s simply wrong. There are dozens…make that hundreds…of peer-reviewed papers which point toward Al Gore and friends being wrong. The fact that you don’t read them doesn’t mean they don’t exist. Here’s one page with links to more articles than you can shake a stick at.
And, the NIPCC report (pdf) remains a valuable resource. They deal in some depth with the IPCC’s claim that humans are “very likely” causing global warming, a statement which you as an economist should know much better than to accept if you look at the IPCC’s methodology. (Furthermore, I do not see evidence supporting your claim that the NIPCC report is wrong about the “hockey stick” graph being discredited and no being “no longer emphasized” by the IPCC.)
So, Dr. Bauman, in my opinion every argument you made is incorrect and demonstrates a certain ignorance of science, statistics, and especially politics. Furthermore, you’re incorrect to frame this as an issue of libertarians versus everybody else. But to the extent that this has become a partisan debate, I think that very fact is interesting. Why should a question that on the surface (pun intended) become a partisan debate? Because both sides realize that what is primarily going on is a move by liberals, leftists (i.e. left of liberals), radical environmentalists, unions, and yes, even some big corporations, to try to massively increase government interference in economics, especially the economics of developed countries. Like everything else, this debate is more about power than about what it seems to be. And that’s part of the reason this particular angle, as opposed to something like global free trade, has been so successful: since it’s a debate about command-and-control government cloaked in scientific jargon that most Americans can’t (and don’t want to try to) understand, they miss what’s really going on. And of course, it’s no surprise that this attack on the US economy in particular comes from an organization that is the most profoundly anti-American global organization in existence. No peace, indeed.