From a regional perspective, and specifically the region that currently holds the hopes of so many Democrats — the Mountain West — the swing voter is king. Republicans hold about a 12-point registration advantage [1] across the region. Obviously, Republicans don't have a lock on every office in each of the eight states, so some of those Republicans, as well as the swelling ranks of the unaffiliated, are splitting their tickets.

The next stop in the race should prove instructive on this score. Nevada's Jan. 19 caucus is going to be held earlier than ever and will also be the first time the state has ventured into a presidential caucus statewide. While all participants have to be registered in the party for which they caucus, that shouldn't be too much of a hurdle for the independents or the ticket splitters, as they can register on the spot. Democrats hold a very slight edge in registrations in Nevada, for the first time in 10 years.

So, provided Obama's winning streak, and his love affair with the independent voter, holds through today's voting in New Hampshire, he'll have another real test in Nevada. A test that could reflect his ability to capture the region and presumably the nation in November. National polls and pundits have turned their eyes to the West as the Democrats' big chance to win nationally. However, the reality is that a Democrat doesn't win in many parts of the region unless they can appeal to the always elusive independent or unaffiliated voter, not to mention some Republicans.

This isn't a new phenomenon for Democrats in the West — it's why you rarely find a Western Dem who is an enthusiastic supporter of gun control, for example. Finding avenues of nonpartisan, and even anti-partisan, appeal have been critical to the survival of the Western Democrat in the lean years since Ronald Reagan helped solidify the region as solidly red, as has keeping the national party at arm's length. The key for the Democratic Party in shaping a strategy for the 2008 elections will be allowing Democrats running in the region to run with a high degree of independence from the national party's message and structure. The key for Democrats running in the West will be to find those issues that can be branded as Democratic and that uphold our progressive values.

The risk, of course, for Democrats in the region and for our national candidates is the same as in any area — diluting the Democratic brand further and not providing the strong contrast to the other party that any healthy political system requires. This risk is greater where the climb for Democrats is even more uphill — the northern group of states, and arguably where the stakes are highest.

There is also the risk of misreading the basic anti-partisan orientation of these voters as a longing for bipartisanship. It's important to note that, in the context of this region, anti-partisan is not the equivalent of bipartisan. Western voters are highly pragmatic, looking for problem solvers first, and ideological debate is of less interest than action.

Misreading this as some great yearning for comity can result in short-lived and uneasy compromises that erode the Democratic brand and end up diluting policies and programs. That doesn't have to happen. Voters in the Mountain West are more swayed by results than by process. Battles can be won, even in the most unlikely of places, by taking strong, principled, progressive stands.

Consider Jon Tester's refusal in the 2006 Senate campaign in Montana to buy into the fear narrative. When Conrad Burns tried to paint him as weak on national security because Tester would allow the PATRIOT Act to be weakened, Tester shot back " I don't want to weaken the Patriot Act--I want to repeal it. What it does, it takes away your freedom ... and when you take away our freedoms, the terrorists have won." That statement reverberated through the remainder of the campaign, bringing many libertarian leaning Republican and independent voters to take a second look at Tester.

Joan McCarter is a contributing editor of DailyKos.com and a researcher of Western politics

The next generation of Western Democrats, as well as national Democrats who want to triumph in the region, should learn from the recent history of fighters like Tester and Brian Schweitzer, but also look to great tradition of principled and progressive Western Democrats — Frank Church, Cecil Andrus, Mike Mansfield, Mo Udall, Bruce Babbitt, Gary Hart. These leaders were able to be unapologetic Democrats, take controversial stands on critical issues, and stand up for the ultimate progressive value of the common good.

Taking strong, controversial stands doesn't seem to be the direction that Obama is willing to pursue thus far. In a primary campaign, he arguably doesn't have to, though he's setting a decidedly conciliatory tone that will effectively brand his candidacy should he become the Democrat's nominee, something that many of us in the progressive base of the party find pretty discomfiting. Given that this Republican party has redefined the idea of compromise to mean Democratic capitulation, and the Democrats have willingly obliged, many of us question the wisdom of starting with your bargaining position with a decided tilt toward the right.

To project how that kumbaya spirit might work for Obama in November, we come back to Nevada and the other candidate independent voters have shown such a preference for in the past: John McCain. He's expected to come out of New Hampshire today if not with a win, then firmly back in the race. Nevada should be fertile ground for McCain, since he's the closest thing to a hometown candidate running. Interestingly enough, McCain has some base problems of his own, namely on immigration.

Obama has the advantage of being able to take his base for granted - the prospect of taking back the White House is too strong for Democrats to pass up by not participating this cycle. None of the Republicans have that advantage, each of them damaged in some aspect as far as the base is concerned. So it becomes, again, the battle for the middle. For once, a Western state might just get a say in how that plays out.

Editor’s note: Joan McCarter's weekly blogs are part of a feature on The Denver Post's PoliticsWest.com site called "Diary of a Mad Voter." The group blog, published in partnership with NewWest.Net/Politics [2], is intended to give a glimpse into the hearts and minds of several independent-minded voters and thinkers in the Rocky Mountain West in the '08 election cycle. Check back regularly at www.politicswest.com [3] for "Diary of a Mad Voter."