Poll: Hispanic voters are returning to the Dem Party

Hispanic voters are returning to the Democratic Party in greater numbers and could influence the presidential race in Colorado and several other Western states, a new poll reported today.

Colorado is one of four states won narrowly by President Bush in 2004 where Hispanics also make a sizable chunk of the electorate, according to the survey from the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center.

The analysis also found Hispanic registered voters nationally favor Democrats to Republicans by 57 to 23 percent, a 34-point gap that has increased by more than 10 points since 2006.

“This U-turn in Hispanic partisan allegiance trends comes at a time when the issue of illegal immigration has become an intense focus of national attention and debate,” the study’s authors noted.

Before Bush’s election in 2000, Hispanic voters also favored Democrats by more than 30 points, but the party had been able to close the gap in recent years, the center said.

In 2004, Bush garnered an estimated 40 percent of the national Hispanic vote, a record for a Republican candidate.

A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee indicated Thursday that the party had nothing to worry about from the new numbers.

“Hispanic voters judge candidates based on where they stand on the issues, and the Republican Party is more closely aligned with Hispanics than liberals like Hillary Clinton who want to create a government-run health care system sponsored by garnishing wages, massive tax increases that hurt small businesses and families, and surrender from the War on Terror’s central front,” said Hessy Fernandez, Director of Hispanic Communications for the RNC.

Here are key statistics from the poll:

--In six states Bush carried by five points or less in 2004, four have a “sizable share” of Hispanic voters: New Mexico (where Hispanics make up 37% of the eligible electorate); Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%)

--There are only seven states where the estimated Hispanic share of the state electorate exceeds the 2004 Republican margin of victory: New Mexico, Texas, Arizona, Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa

-- Forty-four percent of Hispanic registered voters said Democrats have more concern for Hispanics, while 8 percent chose Republicans and another 41 percent said there is no difference. Forty-one percent also said Democrats do a better job of handling illegal immigration, while 14 percent picked the GOP and 26 percent said neither.

--Forty-one percent of Hispanic registered voters said Bush administration policies have been harmful to Hispanics, but 16 percent said they have been helpful and 33 percent said they have not had much impact.

--Hispanics are the nation's fastest growing minority, making up about 15 percent of the U.S. population. However, Hispanics will constitute only about nine percent of the eligible electorate nationwide in 2008

--Sen. Hillary Clinton is supported by 59 percent of Hispanics who align with the Democratic Party, while Sen. Barack Obama draws 15 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson garners the support of 8 percent

--On the Republican side, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani has the support of 35 percent of Hispanic registered voters aligning with the GOP, followed by former Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent and Sen. John MCain at 10 percent

The survey was conducted by telephone with 2,003 randomly selected Hispanics, including 843 registered voters

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